Ibintu bishobora gutungurana mu matora ya Perezida ya 2017

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Hasigaye amezi arindwi n’igice ngo amatora ya Perezida wa Repubulika y’u Rwanda abe. Uzatorwa azayobora manda y’imyaka irindwi zakandi azajya mu mateka kuko ni we wa nyuma uzaba ayoboye manda y’imyaka irindwi, dore ko uzamusimbura mu yindi manda azatangira kuyobora manda y’imyaka itanu nkuko Itegeko Nshinga ryavuguruwe muri 2015 ribiteganya.

Hari byinshi biri gukorwa ngo amatora azagende neza, haba ku ruhande rw’abatora, Komisiyo y’amatora izayayobora ndetse n’amashyaka n’abanyapolitiki bazayitabira.

Makuruki yakusanyije bimwe mu bintu bishobora kuzatungurana muri ayo matora. Ni ubusesenguzi si ubuhanuzi, ntabwo bivuze ko ibyavuzwe byose ariko bizaba.

1.Bwa mbere mu myaka isaga 20, abakandida bashobora kurumbuka cyane

Tariki ya 3 n’iya 4 Kanama 2017 mu Rwanda hateganyijwe amatora ya Perezida.Ni amatora azaba abaye ku nshuro ya gatatu mu myaka 23 ishize.

Bitandukanye n’amatora yabaye mu mwaka wa 2003 n’ayabaye muri 2010, amatora ya Perezida muri uyu mwaka ashobora kugaragaramo abakandida benshi.

Muri 2003 hiyamamaje abakandida batatu, Paul Kagame wa FPR Inkotanyi, Faustin Twagiramungu wigengaga na Nayinzira Jean Nepomuscene wigengaga, bose byarangiye batsinzwe n’umukandida wa FPR-Inkotanyi.

Mu mwaka wa 2010, bwo abakandida bavuye kuri batatu (2003) bagera kuri bane. Abiyamamaje icyo gihe ni Paul Kagame wa FPR-Inkotanyi, Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo wa PSD, Prosper Higiro wa PL na Mukabaramba Alvera wa PPC nabwo Paul Kagame arabatsinda.

Uyu mwaka bigaragara ko abakandida bashobora kwiyongera. Kugeza muri Mutarama uyu mwaka, abakandida bane bimaze kumenyekana ko baziyamamaza, cyeretse habayeho ko bamwe bagira ibyo batuzuza bakangirwa.

Abamaze gutangaza ko baziyamamaza ni Padiri Thomas Nahimana uba mu Bufaransa ufite ishyaka ritaremerwa, Phillippe Mpayimana na we uba mu Bufaransa, Dr Frank Habineza wa Green Party ndetse na Perezida uriho Paul Kagame wasabwe n’abanyarwanda kongera kwiyamamaza, akaza kubyemera tariki ya 1 Mutarama 2016.

Ibi bigaragaza ko abakandida bashobora kurumbuka muri aya matora, dore ko hasigaye andi mezi atanu ngo kandidatire zitangire kwakirwa kandi amashyaka arenga icumi ari imbere mu gihugu na yo uretse PDI, nta rindi ryari ryatangaza ko rizifatanya na FPR-Inkotanyi cyangwa ko ritazatanga umukandida.

2.Umukandida utazitwararika mu mbwirwaruhame ashobora gufungwa

Imvugo ikurura abaturage kandi ikomeye ni imwe mu bituma abantu bashidukira umukandida bakamuhundagazaho amajwi. Byaragaragaye mu minsi ishize muri Amerika ubwo Donald Trump yatangiranaga imvugo zikakaye bakamwita umusazi, nyamara bikarangira atsinze amatora.

Igihugu nk’u Rwanda kimaze imyaka 23 gusa kivuye muri Jenoside yakorewe Abatutsi, biragoye ko imvugo nk’izo Trump yakoreshaga zakwihanganirwa kuko benshi baracyafite ibikomere batewe na Jenoside yakorewe abatutsi.

Komisiyo y’ubumwe n’ubwiyunge na yo yagaragajaje ko abantu 28.9 % baramutse babonye urwaho bakongera bagakora Jenoside mu gihe 27.9 % bakibona mu ndorerwamo y’amoko. Ibyo bituma inzego zitandukanye zihora ziri maso ngo hatagira uca mu rihumye agakoresha imvugo zishobora guhembera urwango.

Byarabaye ubwo Ingabire Victoire yazaga aje kwiyamamaza muri 2010, nyamara akigera mu Rwanda agakoresha imvugo ubutabera bwasanze ihembera urwango arafungwa.

Cyane cyane imvugo irimo ingengabitekerezo ya Jenoside ikwiye kwirindwa n’abaziyamamaza, bitaba ibyo bishobora kuzagora abiyamamaza bitwaje iyo turufu, kimwe n’abafashe Trump nk’icyitegererezo mu kwiyamamaza.

3.Uzazana umushinga ushyigikira urubyiruko n’abarimu afite amahirwe menshi

Ubushakashatsi bwa kane ku mibereho y’ingo (EICV4) bwagaragaje ko mu duce tw’umujyi ubushomeri buri ku kigero cya 8.7%. Bwerekanye kandi ko mu badafite akazi mu Rwanda 9% ari urubyiruko rwarangije amashuri yisumbuye, naho 13.5 % byabo ni abarangije kaminuza. Icyakora mu Ntara zose byagaragaye ko ubushomeri mu rubyiruko ari 1 %.

Nubwo imibare igaragaza ko ubushomeri bungana butyo ariko, byanashoboka ko bunarenze icyo gipimo, kuko ukurikije uko ibipimo by’ubushomeri ku rwego mpuzamahanga ari na byo byakoreshejwe bifata umushomeri, bitandukanye n’ibipimo imitwe ya benshi mu banyarwanda ikoresha ipima ubushomeri.

Nk’ubu kimwe mu biranga umushomeri ku bipimo mpuzamahanga, harimo kuba umuntu nibura nta n’isaha akora mu cyumweru, mu gihe mu Rwanda abenshi ubushomeri bufatwa nko kutagira akazi kakwinjiriza amafaranga afatika ku munsi cyangwa ku kwezi.

Byumvikane ko dukurikije uko abanyarwanda bafata umuntu utagira akazi bo babona ubushomeri buri ku kigero cyo hejuru ukurikije ibyagaragajwe n’ibipimo mpuzamahanga.

Ubuzima mu rubyiruko bwarahenze. Kurongora ntabwo bikorwa n’ubonetse wese kubera amikoro, imirimo ihari nubwo Leta ikomeza guhanga indi buri mwaka ariko iracyari iyanga.

Uziyamamaza cyane cyane agaragaza inzira nyazo yacamo ubushomeri ku rubyiruko bukagabanyuka, icyo azarufasha n’ibindi nta shiti ko amajwi menshi ari aye.

Uretse urubyiruko hari n’abarimu. Abarimu ni bamwe mu bantu hafi ku isi hose bavuga ko bahembwa umushahara muke. Mu bihugu byo munsi y’ubutayi bwa Sahara ho imishahara y’abarimu iri hasi cyane.

Nko Muri Singapore, umwarimu waho wigisha mu mashuri yisumbuye muri Leta nibura ku mwaka ashobora kubona miliyoni 40 z’amanyarwanda, mugihe umwarimu nk’uwo mu Rwanda abona atarenze miliyoni ebyiri. Bikunze kuvugwa ko umushahara muke wa mwarimu waba ari n’umwe mu bigira ingaruka ku ireme ry’uburezi.

Umukandida uzazana umushinga mwiza w’uko yazamura umushahara wa mwarimu agamije kongera ireme ry’uburezi, biragoye ko, abarimu, ababyeyi bafite abana n’abandi bashishoza bazamwima amajwi.

4. FPR-Inkotanyi iramutse idatanze Kagame ishobora gutsindwa.

Ubushakashatsi bw’Ikigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe imiyoborere bwagaragaje ko abanyarwanda bafitiye icyizere Perezida Paul Kagame ku kigero cya 100 %. Nta wundi muntu cyangwa urwego abaturage bagaragarije icyizere kingana gityo.

Uretse n’ibyo kandi, mu bitangazamakuru bitandukanye abaturage bumvikana bashimira Perezida Kagame, uwahuye n’ikibazo aba yifuza kumubona ngo akimugezeho, uwarenganye akumva ko byatewe n’uko Perezida atabizi. Abayobozi nabo biyumvamo Perezida kurusha undi wese, hari n’ibyo bakora ubwabo cyangwa abafatanyije n’abaturage bakabimwitirira nubwo we yagaragaje ko adakunda kwitirirwa byose.

Ibi bigaragaza ko ishyaka FPR Inkotanyi riramutse ridatanze Perezida Kagame ho umukandida, byagorana kugira undi muntu wemeza abaturage ngo bamutore. Ubwo icyo gihe hasaba imbaraga zidasanzwe mu kwiyamamaza ndetse hatazamo gushishoza abo bahanganye bakaba banamutsinda.

5.Amashyaka menshi y’imbere mu gihugu ashobora kwifatanya na FPR-Inkotanyi

Mu mashyaka agera kuri 11 akorera mu Rwanda , muri 2015 ubwo abaturage basabaga ko Itegeko Nshinga rivugururwa Perezida uriho akabasha kongera kwiyamamaza, uretse Democratic Green Party, andi yose yarabishyigikiye.

Uku kubishyigikira kuvuze ko n’ubundi FPR Inkotanyi nitanga Kagame nk’umukandida, ayo yamushyigikiye icyo gihe nuko yabonaga ko hari icyo abarusha, niyiyamamaza, kujya guhatana na we kandi bariyemereye ko hari icyo abarusha byaba ari nko kwikirigita ugaseka, uretse ko n’abarwanashyaka b’ayo mashyaka ari bake cyane ugeraranyije n’abari muri FPR Inkotanyi.

6.Kandidatire ya Kagame ishobora kuvugisha amahanga

Ubwo havugururwaga Itegeko Nshinga ibihugu bikomeye birimo Amerika n’u Bwongereza ndetse n’ibindi bihugu by’i Burayi byarabyamaganye bivuga ko ari uburyo bwo gushaka kuguma ku butegetsi.

Ntabwo byabujije amatora ya referandumu kuba ndetse Perezida Kagame yemererwa kuba yakongera kwiyamamaza.

Nubwo ibyo bihugu bitakomeje kuvuga, ibyo bihugu bisa n’ibitegereje koko ngo birebe ko ibyo yasabwe n’abaturage abikora, ubundi byandike andi matangazo amwamagana.

Nyuma ya referandumu n’ibyavuyemo ibihugu byaracecetse ndetse umubano wabyo n’u Rwanda urakomeza, rero nubwo byazavuga ntabwo bigaragara ko hari ikintu gikomeye bizahungabanya ku mubano wabyo n’u Rwanda, byongeye ko akenshi ibihugu bitizwa umurindi n’abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi imbere mu gihugu kandi abari imbere mu gihugu batavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi, nta mahane menshi bateye ku byavuye muri referandumu.

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Yisangize Inshuti.

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